As we method the back-end of the common season it’s rising more and more obvious that C.J. Stroud isn’t simply the offensive rookie of the yr, however placing a reliable declare on the Most Worthwhile Participant award.
Earlier than you rush to the feedback and name me an fool, hear me out on why Stroud has been the MVP this season — then rush to the feedback and name me an fool.
Stroud had an actual assertion win on Sunday by beating the Bengals in a sport the place he out-played Joe Burrow en path to getting the Texans to 5-4 on the season, one sport out of 1st within the aggressive AFC South. If the playoffs began at the moment Houston can be in, and that’s virtually completely due to Stroud, who has remodeled one of many worst groups within the NFL right into a reliable risk in six months since being drafted.
We will make all kinds of semantic argument about what an MVP award ought to imply. Personally, I believe that too usually it merely equates profitable with worth, whereas failing to take note of the transformative impact a participant has on a group. In the case of the NFL the reality is that MVP is usually synonymous with “greatest quarterback,” and on this rubric you’d be arduous pressed to seek out anybody within the league proper now extra deserving that C.J. Stroud.
Stroud’s projected stats by the top of the common season simply clear the brink for MVP worthiness, and evaluate extraordinarily favorably to the final 5 recipients of the award.
NFL MVP Comparability, 2018-2023
| Yr | Title | CMP | ATT | CMP% | YDS | TD | INT | RTG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yr | Title | CMP | ATT | CMP% | YDS | TD | INT | RTG |
| 2018 | Patrick Mahomes | 383 | 550 | 66 | 5,097 | 50 | 12 | 113.8 |
| 2019 | Lamar Jackson | 265 | 401 | 66.1 | 3,127 | 36 | 6 | 113.3 |
| 2020 | Aaron Rodgers | 372 | 526 | 70.7 | 4,299 | 48 | 5 | 121.5 |
| 2021 | Aaron Rodgers | 366 | 531 | 68.9 | 4,115 | 37 | 4 | 111.9 |
| 2022 | Patrick Mahomes | 435 | 648 | 67.1 | 5,250 | 41 | 12 | 105.2 |
| 2023 | C.J. Stroud (projected) | 370 | 601 | 61.6 | 4,960 | 28 | 4 | 101 |
Whereas Stroud doesn’t clear the brink in completion share, touchdowns, or passer ranking — he simply crosses the bar in yards and TD/INT effectivity. The reality is that this has been a down yr for prime quarterbacks across the NFL, with Stroud’s projected numbers exceeding these of Mahomes, Josh Allen or Justin Herbert with relative ease. His largest problem to MVP at quarterback is Tua Tagovailoa, however in case you ask anybody exterior of Miami who has had the higher season they’re going to select Stroud.
That’s to not say Tua isn’t deserving, as a result of in some ways he’s been the greatest quarterback within the league this yr. Nevertheless, it’s tough to divorce his efficiency from being on a group with the perfect offensive coach within the NFL, having the perfect receiver within the league this season in Tyreek Hill, including Jaylen Waddle to the combo — and capping that each one off with the Dolphins’ run sport.
Voters historically reward quarterbacks who do quite a bit with a little bit. That was the first driving power behind Mahomes’ 2022 win when he lacked receivers, and Rodgers when he solely had Davante Adams. Stroud has better-than-expected weapons in Tank Dell and Nico Collins, however virtually no person knew their names previous to this season — and particularly compared with Hill and Waddle.
The plain rub right here is that assuming stats maintain Tagovailoa may win the MVP, whereas Stroud can be rewarded Offensive Rookie of the Yr (OROY), however I believe there’s an especially compelling case to be made for Stroud skipping that middleman step and vaulting instantly into the dialog for the highest award. If we have a look at a Texans’ roster that has been largely unchanged from 2022 to now we will clearly see how priceless Stroud has been on the place.
Davis Mills at greatest was a 3,000 yard passer with mediocre TD/INT numbers. The group was 3-13-1 consequently. With the identical blocking, and the practical addition of 1 good receiver in Dell, Stroud has already eclipsed final yr’s win whole and is main a group to a win over the Cincinnati Bengals. That’s important, and why I really feel he deserves the highest award.
The hilarious a part of Stroud’s unimaginable season is how shut this dream got here to by no means being realized. There’s quite a lot of revisionist historical past taking place with Nick Caserio and the Texans entrance workplace in terms of Stroud, however the reality stays that this group actually wished Bryce Younger and had been crestfallen that the Panthers traded as much as take him. Stroud was very a lot a comfort prize, a desperation selection, a participant they took as a result of they wanted a quarterback, not essentially as a result of they really wished C.J. Stroud — nevertheless it’s become one of the lucky draft selections in current historical past.
Houston doesn’t simply have its franchise QB, or the perfect rookie of the yr, however a reliable prime quarterback within the NFL.
Winner: Myles Garrett
It’s far previous time we mentioned the season Myles Garrett is having for the Browns. Misplaced within the Browns’ inconsistent offense and quarterbacking points is recognizing a easy truth: Cleveland have a participant handing over one of the legendary defensive seasons we now have ever seen.
Sunday was simply one other day on the workplace for Garrett who casually completed with 1.5 sacks. It brings his season whole to 9.5, however extra spectacular than simply attending to the quarterback is the extent of disruption he’s in a position to deliver to groups across the league.
Garrett’s projected stats for this season by its finish virtually defy perception: 20.2 sacks, 9 pressured fumbles, and 12.8 stuffed runs. It is a defensive finish who is prospering in each section of the sport and derailing offenses across the league.
If the Browns are in a position to make a run to the playoffs this season (and indicators are pointing to that being the case) will probably be due to the work Garrett is doing on protection.
Loser: The Chargers protection
This needs to be one of many saddest developments of the 2023 season. Detroit has an excellent offense, however the Chargers are permitting their whole season to go up in flames as a result of they’ll’t do the naked minimal in terms of stopping opposing groups.
On Sunday the Chargers allowed 533 whole yards, 200 dashing yards, and couldn’t handle to capitalize on a 4 landing sport from Justin Herbert. That ought to simply be sufficient for many groups to win, however Los Angeles retains getting dominated.
The Chargers now have a protection languishing within the 20s. They’ll’t rating sufficient to mitigate a unit that permits over 24 points-per-game, and all the things is crumbling with the group at 4-5. This group needs to be a critical risk within the NFL, they usually’re getting run over — once more.
Winner: Joshua Dobbs
No person is having a greater yr than Joshua Dobbs. It’s not like he’s going to win any awards, however the deal on the commerce deadline that despatched him to Minnesota goes to set him up perpetually within the league.
I don’t know the way lengthy the Vikings can journey this wave, nevertheless it’s working for now. Dobbs performed extraordinarily properly towards the Saints, maximizing T.J. Hockenson’s function within the offense and enjoying environment friendly soccer. Dobbs can’t actually stretch the sector, nevertheless it doesn’t matter if this group retains profitable.
Loser: Atlanta Falcons
The excellent news: Working Bijan Robinson works! Who knew?!
The dangerous information: Actually all the things else
Winner: Travis Kelce
The Chiefs are on a bye week, however Kelce received anyway.
Congrats, Travis.
